Kings on the Bubble

purus · **Posted:** Wed Nov 14, 2007 5:06 am

It's bubble time in Full Tilt's nightly 500K Play Chip $40 Freeroll and everyone is playing tight as a button (no, not the dealer button) except for one big stack who is taking advantage of all the tight play.

Blinds are 80/160 and you are currently in 16th place with 1650 in chips and 21 players left. The bubble breaks at 18 players and a nice big prize of $2 a piece. The next pay-out increase is $3 for 2nd place and $5 for 1st.

You are dealt KK and our aforementioned Villain raises it up to 560 in front of you. You can't help but take the chance to take advantage of his aggressive play, and besides, you can probably afford to lose 560 at this point and not hurt your chances of cashing too bad in case an ace hits the flop. So you call.

It's a gorgeous flop of T92 with 2 hearts. The pot is now 1280. Our Villain quickly raises it up big and puts you all-in for your remaining 1090 in chips. What do you do?

Doomswitch · **Posted:** Wed Nov 14, 2007 5:29 am

Call but I would have pushed pre flop.

JAYASEKERA · **Posted:** Wed Nov 14, 2007 5:33 am

I am rewriting my own history, Illuminati style.

purus · **Posted:** Wed Nov 14, 2007 7:32 am

Don't forget to consider that you're basically guaranteed $2 if you fold your way into top 18 and the next payout increase is at 2nd and 1st place.

My figuring is that no matter how many chips you can possibly win in this hand, they won't increase your chances of reaching 2nd or 1st enough to offset just about any risk of missing the money at all.

I didn't push all-in preflop because I figured I could at least wait and see if an ace hit the flop and calling the 500 or so preflop wouldn't put me at too much risk of missing the money.

When he pushed me all-in on the flop, no matter how nice that flop looks to my kings there is still a risk that he's got me beat, and because of the current tournament situation I can't see it being worth it to take even a small risk of busting out on the bubble.

If you run this situation enough times you are going to win most of those pots, but all those wins are merely chips that only increase your odds slightly of moving up in the tournament payout structure. The few losses of $2 apiece quickly offset those increased odds of a higher payout.

Doomswitch · **Posted:** Wed Nov 14, 2007 7:38 am

If you are going to think like that and play for the money rather than winning the tournament then you should fold every hand preflop provided you have enough chips to fold your way into the money, as you would in a satellite tourney where say the top 20 get a seat to the next level.

What flop are you going to be happy with anyway? Quads?

purus · **Posted:** Wed Nov 14, 2007 7:41 am

Actually the more analysis I do on the call preflop, the worse it looks. Considering he was a big stack, there is a really good chance he will put me all in on the flop regardless of whether he hits a hand or not, so it will be impossible for me to improve my chances of getting away from my kings if he has me beat. Basically, if you're going to call preflop you have to go all-in since you will likely be all-in on the flop regardless and you won't have learned a thing about whether he has you beat or not.

Given that analysis, the only option is to fold these preflop. Tough fold, but I can't see it paying off in the long run to get all-in with any cards at this point in the tournament given the payout structure.

purus · **Posted:** Wed Nov 14, 2007 7:51 am

Doomswitch wrote:

What flop are you going to be happy with anyway? Quads?

Good point Doom. I think the only option here was to fold these preflop.

Doomswitch wrote:

If you are going to think like that and play for the money rather than winning the tournament then you should fold every hand preflop provided you have enough chips to fold your way into the money, as you would in a satellite tourney where say the top 20 get a seat to the next level.

But you have to make every decision based on the expected value in the long run. How can you possibly gamble for good chances of a slight increase in odds of increasing your payout versus a small chance of losing any payout whatsoever?

This is how I see it, numbers are on the generous side:

95% chance of increasing odds of gaining $1 versus 5% chance of losing $2.

You'd have to figure out how much winning this pot is going to increase your odds of gaining that extra $1 or even the extra $3 for 1st place.

1/20 times you lose $2. Of those other 19 times you would have to reach 2nd place 2 times to get your $2 back that you lost. That means you'd have to increase your odds of reaching 2nd by about 10%. I'm not sure those extra chips do that, although I guess I could be wrong.

These numbers are nowhere near accurate and you'd have to also take into account the extra $3 for placing first. Perhaps it is closer that I had originally thought...

Doomswitch · **Posted:** Wed Nov 14, 2007 7:53 am

Obviously from a $ perspective you would be right to fold but I am assuming for most people the act of winning the tourney would mean a lot more than $5!

purus · **Posted:** Wed Nov 14, 2007 9:35 pm

True enough. I'm looking at it from the Chris Ferguson Challenge perspective, so I guess you have to factor that in

Acornman · **Posted:** Wed Nov 14, 2007 10:58 pm

With a payout structure like that I think folding preflop is probably best, although I doubt I'd fold Kings and would at least call,if not gamble and shove! ( cos I aint good enough to fold dem cowboys preflop!)

Cogsgoigne · **Posted:** Thu Nov 15, 2007 10:34 am

Interesting analysis, throw some noughts on pay out structure and it's a different situation as we can be blinded by the small winnings in your example.

I think if your doing a Jesus challenge then yes, you fold this pre flop to guarantee the $2 to get on the money ladder. In a normal payout structure MTT, you shove here to enhance your payout.

purus · **Posted:** Fri Nov 16, 2007 12:39 am

Yeah, the weird payout structure of this tournament definitely makes for some extremely tight play on the bubble and then a crazy donk fest to try to chip up close to the lead after the bubble breaks. With a standard payout structure this is definitely a push situation.

Thanks for the feedback and letting me ramble a bit. It's always great to bounce these kinds of analyses off other people.

Likminutz · **Posted:** Mon Nov 19, 2007 6:35 pm

Yeah I'm not sure that is honestly the right time to be folding pocket kings. Like the others, I would have pushed completely before the flop. I understand in this tourney in particular it may have been a better idea to just walk away from your computer and not play anymore hands if you're going to be folding KK's. Since mostly everyone wins 2 bucks and your objective is just to get that money, I understand where you're coming from. Using this analysis in a real tourney would be quite silly though and definitely have you playing way too timid in the long run to win anything.

Anyway I'm workin on my own Chris Ferguson challenge. Right now I have 70 cents in my account! WOOHOO. My play money is only around 200,000 so maybe I'll see you in the 40 dollar freeroll pretty soon.

Good Luck!

hammerheid · **Posted:** Mon Nov 19, 2007 10:35 pm

like everyone else i wouldve pushed all in preflop partly coz i cant put down cowboys and partly coz unless he is sitting with AA ur a strong favorite , letting him see flop gives him a chance of hitting a set . At this point u also have 5 cards at a set of kings .A huge push might force him into surrender . Anyway what did u do and what was result?

Stan

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